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Growth In Permanent Arrivals Slows, Population On RBA’s Radar


Population growth has become a focus because of the pressure it has put on housing in terms of both rents and prices, but also the RBA made a number of mentions of it in the Overview of its November Statement on Monetary Policy. It said that more robust GDP growth was “partly the result of stronger-than-expected growth in population” and it believes that it will support activity over the coming quarters.

  • September working age population grew at 2.8% y/y, a high for the series which begins in 1979. October will be released with Thursday’s labour market data. 3-month momentum remains strong although is down slightly on April.
  • Today arrivals/departures data printed and showed that while permanent arrivals were still strong in September, the increase on a year ago is easing. In October 2022, permanent arrivals increased 70.2k y/y and in September that had moderated to 43.4k. But the total for the last 12 months at 140.7k is the highest in almost 10 years.
  • With building approvals still lacklustre and the housing stock low, rising population is going to continue to put pressure on housing but also support consumption growth.
Australia permanent arrivals 12mth sum

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS

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