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Growth Outlook In Focus As Copom Meeting Looms

BRAZIL
  • Brazil Central Bank will meet on Wednesday where the consensus expect another 150bp hike, bringing the Selic rate to 9.25%.
  • Inflation expectations remain under pressure and should justify further monetary tightening, in line with the guidance set out in the last Copom statement and set of minutes.
  • Within the latest Focus survey, economists now forecast that consumer prices will end next year above the upper limit of the tolerance range for the first time.
  • However, there is growing rhetoric surrounding the deteriorating growth outlook and consistent downgrades of 2022 GDP predictions have prompted some analysts to caution that the BCB may convey a relatively dovish tilt to their messaging strategy. This has likely lent support to the DI curve in the past week with contracts expiring in Jan 24 shifting around 75bps lower.
  • In local news: *President Bolsonaro said on Sunday that Brazil’s oil giant Petrobras will start reducing fuel prices over the next few weeks, without saying how big the cut will be and how the decision was taken, according to reports from Poder360.
  • Worth noting that as its policy tracks international prices Petrobras would probably reduce its prices independently of Bolsonaro’s remarks.
  • The mayor of Rio de Janeiro cancelled plans for the city’s New Year’s Eve celebrations following advice from the state that they weren’t safe to go ahead as the first cases of the omicron variant were reported in the country. (BBG)
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