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GS Expects Rebound In Participation Rate

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • GS estimate total nonfarm payrolls rose +550k in Nov (consensus 546k) tomorrow. This is a similar pace to Oct as it’s “the second full month of hiring following the expiration of federal enhanced unemployment benefits, and with labor demand remaining strong”.
  • They see mixed industry-specific drivers. There could be a second-derivative improvement in education as janitors and support staff return belatedly although labor supply constraints could have weighed on pre-holiday retail hiring.
  • They estimate a one tenth in the unemployment rate to 4.5%, per consensus, and a likely rebound in the participation rate. Participation is “driven by expiring benefits, improving public health, and the easing of childcare constraints”.
  • Finally, they see a 0.5% M/M rise in average hourly earnings (consensus 0.4%) which pushes the Y/Y rate up to 5.1% “reflecting continued wage pressures but negative calendar effects”.
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