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GS Look For CPI Strength In Services Bar Airfares

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Goldman are in line with consensus as they see core CPI 0.32% M/M in August, pushing up from 5.9% to 6.06% Y/Y. Lower gasoline prices should push headline to -0.13% M/M for -0.5pps to 8.02% Y/Y..
  • They see core weakness being led by a further drop in airfares on back of lower oil as well as net softness in autos due to easing supply chain constraints and 2023 model year arrivals.
  • However, they see continued strength in services due to wage pressures, labor shortages and elevated short-term inflation expectations, especially shelter (rent +0.65%, OER +0.55%), plus 0.6% for education and another gain in car insurance as carriers push try to offset higher repair and replacement costs.
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