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GS on NBH Meeting

HUNGARY
  • GS baseline forecast is for the MNB to raise the base rate by 50bp to +3.90% (consensus: +4.40%), but after a streak of weekly rate hikes to the 1-week depo rate GS sees the risks for a larger step higher.
  • Since the last MPC meeting, the Forint has been under pressure following the Russian army’s invasion of Ukraine. This prompted the MNB to resume weekly rate hikes to the 1-week depo rate, raising it by a cumulative 155bp to +5.85% since the February MPC meeting.
  • GS maintains its near-term hawkish bias in Hungary, and thinks that the base rate will be raised to at least +5.50%.

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