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GS: Payrolls Doesn't Change Faster Taper & First Hike In June Call

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Following Friday's payrolls report, Goldman Sachs continue to call for the Fed to double the pace of tapering at the Dec meeting before a first rate hike in June 2022.
  • They noted that payrolls was weaker than expected at +210k (340k below consensus), the household survey was significantly stronger at +1.1mn, “or 1.9mn after adjusting to match the nonfarm payroll methodology” to account for those on unpaid absence, that had a job but weren’t at work or who were self-employed.
  • Importantly, “the payroll survey response rate was the lowest for a November in 13 years [65% vs 74% a year ago], and we place more weight than usual on the household survey this month”.
  • “The unemployment rate declined 0.4pp to 4.2% despite rebounding labor force participation”, although the increased labour supply was consistent with a moderation in average hourly earnings to the slowest monthly pace since March.
  • Also of note, “the share of unemployed workers that reported being on temporary layoff decreased by 2.7pp to 11.8% and is now below its pre-pandemic level (13.7% in 2019)”.
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