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BTP TECHS: (H5) Resistance Remains Intact

BTP TECHS
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisCEEMEAEurozoneItalyBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets
  • RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11     
  • RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
  • RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2   
  • RES 1: 119.84 50-day EMA  
  • PRICE: 119.00 @ Close Jan 23 
  • SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger          
  • SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
  • SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
  • SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

The latest rally in BTP futures highlights a corrective phase. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the next firm resistance at 119.84, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of the 50-day average would strengthen a bullish condition. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish and the pullback from Wednesday’s high may be an early reversal signal. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.

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  • RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11     
  • RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
  • RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2   
  • RES 1: 119.84 50-day EMA  
  • PRICE: 119.00 @ Close Jan 23 
  • SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger          
  • SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
  • SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
  • SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

The latest rally in BTP futures highlights a corrective phase. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the next firm resistance at 119.84, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of the 50-day average would strengthen a bullish condition. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish and the pullback from Wednesday’s high may be an early reversal signal. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.