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Handelsbanken Now Forecast Riksbank Cut In August

RIKSBANK

Handelsbanken now see the Riksbank cutting 25bps in the August, September and December meetings. Previously they had only pencilled in cuts in September and December. Handelsbanken had flagged the possibility of a change in their Riksbank call following this morning's soft June CPI report.

  • Further out, they note "as we are not forecasting too low inflation, nor a significant weakening of the economy, we do not expect the Riksbank rate cuts to go as far as below the neutral policy rate level, merely remove the restrictiveness".
  • "In Q3 2025 we forecast the policy rate to reach our assumed neutral rate level for 2025–26, 2.25%, and stay there".

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