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Headline CPI Falls Below Median Estimate, Core Remains Stubborn

COLOMBIA
  • The larger than expected fall in CPI inflation yesterday opens the door to further gradual rate cuts from the central bank in the coming meetings. The headline rate printed at 9.28% y/y in December, compared to 10.15% previously and 9.45% expected, supported by lower food prices. Ex-food, core CPI inflation slowed to a still high 10.33% y/y (est. 10.31%), from 10.61%. All measures of core inflation are declining slowly and remain well above target.
  • USDCOP rose 1.59% to 3939 yesterday, reflecting the week’s decline in oil prices as local markets reopened following the Epiphany Day holiday. Local bonds yields declined in line with treasury yields and as markets considered the prospect of another policy rate cut at the Jan 31st BanRep meeting.
  • Goldman Sachs expect inflation to continue to gradually trend downwards in 2024 on the back of favourable base effects, normalised food supply, and a highly restrictive monetary policy stance. That said, they expect inflation to remain high in Q1, partly due to the impact of the recent large 12% minimum wage increase. Their base case is still for moderate rate cuts throughout the year, with a 25bp cut expected in January and a 2024YE rate of 9.25%.
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