Headline HICP Tracking Lower Than Consensus, Analysts Are Split

Ahead of the 1000UK/1100CET release, MNI tracks Eurozone headline December HICP at roughly 2.8-2.9% Y/Y (vs 3.0% consensus coming into the week) based on national level numbers, with the 3.4% core consensus estimate looking roughly correct.

• This morning we received December HICP flash readings for the Netherlands (~6% of the EZ basket) and Austria (~3%), bringing the total received up to 75% of the total Eurozone HICP basket:
• Dutch flash HICP for December printed at +1.0% Y/Y (vs +1.2% cons; +1.4% prior). Austrian HICP came in at 5.7% Y/Y (vs 4.9% prior) and +0.5% M/M (0.2% prior).
• Italy (~17% of the basket) at 1000UK time is yet to come.

A quick recap of sell-side expectations that were updated following the German national data out yesterday - there is a decent split between those above and below the consensus coming into the week:

• Above consensus: JPM (3.2% headline, 3.6% core), HSBC (3.1% headline, 3.6% core)
• Below consensus: Nomura (2.8% headline, 3.3-3.4% core), Goldman (2.9% headline, 3.4% core)
• In line: Morgan Stanley (3.0% headline, 3.4% core)