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Headline inflation a tenth softer than exp, core a tenth higher

UK DATA
  • Some mixed UK data there - a downtick in headline CPI is sure to see the MPC breathe a (very shallow) sigh of relief. But the higher than expected core CPI is a bit of a concern still.
  • There was a one tenth miss on headline CPI as it fell two tenths to 9.9%Y/Y but core CPI one tenth higher than expected and previous at 6.3%Y/Y to a new cycle high. PPI sees bigger misses while RPI was in line with expectations.
  • Overall it depends on the MPC's reaction function - the hawks have been more concerned about inflation expectations becoming deanchored - which arguably is more impacted by headline rather than core inflation. So this probably marginally reduces the probability of a 75bp hike next week.
  • We still think that the market is pricing in too much with a round a 75% probability being priced at yesterday's close.
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