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HEALTHCARE: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ: Aaa/AAA neg): Results Preview 17th July

HEALTHCARE
  • Issuance highly unlikely given that JNJ issued $4b and €2.5b already this year.
  • J&J have made 2 major acquisitions in MedTech recently: Shockwave ($13b) and Abiomed ($16.6b) partially offset by the spin-off of Kenvue consumer health.
  • MedTech currently makes up around 36.5% of sales.
  • J&J faces a significant patent cliff with Stelara (12% of sales) now effectively open to competition and Darzalex (12.5%) facing competition after 2029.
  • The company has guided for 10+ assets of >$5b peak year sales by 2030.
  • JNJ equity has underperformed S&P 500 Healthcare by c.-12% this year.
  • The legal exposure to Talcum powder lawsuits is still uncertain. The market was buoyed by a $700m nationwide settlement with 43 states in June but attempts to put legal exposure into a bankruptcy vehicle seem to have stalled.
  • Analysts’ earnings estimates have slipped slightly over the course of the year (FY24 EPS 10.72->10.62) so this is unlikely to be a knockout quarter.
  • Expectations for q-o-q revenue +4.3% with more colour of legal matters, pipeline and MedTech integration.
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