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Heatwave Causes South-Central Gas Market To Tighten

NATURAL GAS

Latest weather forecasts are calling for the heat wave across Texas and the Southeast to presist through mid-August, supporting power demand for cooling and tightening in gas market fundamentals for the South-Central region according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

  • Latest weather forecasts for the southern regions ranging from Texas to Florida suggest temperatures well above the seasonal norm for the coming week, AccuWeather data showed.
  • Since the start of August, gas-fired power demand in Texas has risen sharply and hit a record high of more than 8.5bcf/d on 4 August. Last summer, gas-fired power demand in Texas topped out at just under 8.3 Bcf/d. Over the coming seven days, Texas burns are forecast to average just under 8.2 Bcf/d.
  • Across the Southeast, power burns have trended below record highs set last summer in the mid- to upper-15 Bcf/d range. Still, in July, Southeast power burn averaged over 14.2 Bcf/d and accelerated to nearly 14.5 Bcf/d over the past two weeks. Power demand for the Southeast should remain elevated over the short term, averaging nearly 14.2 Bcf/d through mid-July.
  • With hot weather and strong gas-fired power demand persisting over the past weekend—and now likely into mid-August— it is possible that additional withdrawals from South-Central storage could follow in the weeks ahead, further narrowing the surplus in a steady tightening for regional market fundamentals.
  • US Henry Hub prices have edged lower today but are holding steady since yesterday around highs seen on 25-26 July of around $2.7/MMbtu, supported by higher demand.

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