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Heavy Volumes, Wide Ranges, ISM Services Cools Recession Cares

US TSYS
  • Treasuries are trading mixed after the bell, well off early session highs as short end support evaporated following mildly higher than expected in July at 51.4 (cons 51.0), confirming a return above 50 after what had been the lowest since early in the pandemic. Coupled with firmer underlying details, imminent recession concerns that appeared to have been priced in cooled.
  • Heavy volumes (TYU4 >3.6M) and wide ranges (TYU4 113-24.5 low vs 115-03.5 high) on the day. Curves surged steeper overnight with 2s10s dis-inverting for the first time in two years to 1.475 high -- reversed course to -11.637 after the Services data.
  • Elsewhere, Services PMI revised down to 55.0 (flash and cons 56.0) for a modest decline from 55.3 in June. Composite PMI revised down to 54.3 (flash 55.0) for a slightly larger decline from 54.8 in June.
  • Markets showed little reaction to the Federal Reserve Board's Sr Loan Officer Loan Survey (SLOOS): There was less tightening in lending standards in Q2 than that of Q1 across the board, offering a relative boost to growth. After the Q1 report saw a mixed bag for loan demand, the Q2 report saw a (in some areas sharp) normalization of prior declines.
  • Looking ahead to Tuesday: Trade Balance, Tsy 3Y Note Sale, no scheduled Fed speak. Markets watching for VP Harris Democratic nominee's choice of Vice President no later than Tuesday.
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