Henry Hub Recovers Ground Amid Mixed US Weather Forecast

Henry Hub recovers ground following a drop yesterday but remains below yesterday’s high of 1.841$/mmbtu. Support comes from a slightly cooler weather outlook while uncertainty surrounding US production this year is also limiting downside moves despite low LNG export feedgas flows.

• US Natgas APR 24 up 2.7% at 1.81$/mmbtu
• US Natgas SEP 24 up 1.3% at 2.53$/mmbtu
• US Natgas MAR 25 up 0.6% at 3.22$/mmbtu
• Total feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals are today estimated down at 12.9bcf/d according to Bloomberg. A drop in Sabine Pass supply by 0.3bcf/d on the day is adding to the low Freeport flows which currently suggest two of the three trains are offline.
• US domestic natural gas production was yesterday relatively unchanged at 101.2bcf/d according to Bloomberg with supplies more stable so far this month after the decline from as high as 105bcf/d seen in early Feb.
• Lower 48 natural gas demand is today down 73.9bcf/d compared to the seasonal normal over around 81bcf/d. The US temperature forecast is showing a mixed picture with above normal temperatures expected on the east coast into the coming weekend before the eastern half of the country cools back to at or below normal in the 6-10 day period. The west coast remains above normal throughout the 6-14 day period.

• Export flows to Mexico are today steady at 6.4bcf/d according to Bloomberg.