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High-Yield Market Remains ‘Distressed’

CHINA
  • Last year, the Chinese credit market was under intense pressure, mainly driven by the collapse of property developer Evergrande, which spurred contagion risks for the entire property sector.
  • Hence, the elevated uncertainty in the property market led to a significant divergence between US and China HY indexes.
  • This year, the deterioration in the Russia/Ukraine conflict has generated a shock in all asset classes and the market uncertainty has led to a significant rise in volatility in equities, credit and FX markets.
  • The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index (LF98TRUU Index) is down over 5% since its record high reached in December.
  • Interestingly, the shock has continued to dramatically weigh on China credit market, with the HY index (H29381US Index) plunging to its lowest level since Q4 2012.
    • According to Bloomberg, China HY USD bond yield surged above 25% this week (record high).
  • As a reminder, China property represents nearly 50% of the index, which explains the significant divergence between US and China HY indexes in the past year (chart below).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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