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History Suggests Gasoline Demand Recovery Unlikely

OIL PRODUCTS

Demand surveys from OPIS find no evidence of an imminent bounce in US gasoline demand

  • OPIS suggest that historically demand falls after the end of the summer driving season with the last five years showing an average 377kbpd lower in September compared to August.
  • EIA implied volatility data has been volatile over the summer but has trended down towards 2020 levels and well below the demand seen in 2019. The update weekly EIA data is due for release later this afternoon.
  • They suggest increasing demand could come from the export market with the US net exporters of about one more cargo per month, increasing consumption by 370kbpd..
  • Gasoline and diesel cracks spreads are drifting lower on the back of lower demand concerns before the release of the updated EIA inventory data later.
    • US 321 crack down -1.6$/bbl at 31.2$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down -0.7$/bbl at 14.24$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down -2.8$/bbl at 65.02$/bbl

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