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Holding Close To 100bp Of Fed Cuts Over Three Meetings Before US PPI

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates hold within yesterday’s range as they await today’s July PPI report. Core PCE inflation implications from the usual components including health care-related services, airfares, car insurance and portfolio management fees should help ultimately set the tone.
  • Cumulative cuts: 40bp Sep, 71bp Nov, 102bp Dec and 126bp Jan.
  • Ahead, Bostic (’24) voter is the sole scheduled Fedspeak at 1315ET, in first comments since the July FOMC. He’s recently been one of the more hawkish FOMC members, whilst the most recent appearance remains from Gov. Bowman at the weekend (arguably the most hawkish) who noted that the rise in unemployment is exaggerating the labor market cooling.
  • Re-upping the US CPI Preview for Wednesday’s release: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/65736/USCPIPrevAug2024.pdf

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