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Free AccessHolding Sharply Cheaper, Infl. Expns. Higher, Job Vacancies Lower
ACGBs (YM -9.0 & XM -10.5) are holding cheaper but off the session’s worst levels.
- MI June Inflation Expectations rose to 4.4% from 4.1% in May.
- Job vacancies fell 2.7% q/q in three months to May. The drop in vacancies followed a fall of 6.2% between February and last November. May marked two years since a peak in job vacancies in May 2022, with vacancies falling 26.0% over that period, the ABS said.
- Cash ACGBs are 8-10bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +7bps, the highest since February.
- Swap rates are sharply higher with the 3s10s curve steeper.
- The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -5 to -11.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 9-29bps firmer than pre-CPI levels across meetings, with 2025 meetings leading. The market now attaches a 55% chance that the RBA will hike 25bps in August. A cumulative 21bps of tightening is priced by September.
- RBA Hauser will give a speech today aftermarket.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.