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ADP Beats, Doesn't Change The Nonfarms Narrative

DATA REACT

The September ADP Private Payrolls beat of 138k was really more like 100k when accounting for the -34k revision to August, but still strong.

  • Of particular interest is the +466K in services jobs highlighted by the +226K figure for Leisure and Hospitality which was the highest since June, suggesting a Jul-Aug lull is reversing and perhaps further evidence that the Delta Covid variant is not having a particularly significant lasting impact on hiring.
  • But: small business employment growth of just +63K suggests very little traction there, with all of the heavy lifting done by large businesses: +390K was the highest since June 2020.
  • Little market reaction apart from a knee-jerk dip in Treasuries, so doesn't appear to be narrative-changing for Friday's payrolls figure. Probably fair enough as ADP not a particularly reliable advance indicator.
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