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The CBR is expected to raise its key rate by +50bp to a terminal rate of 7.00% as the bank garpples with persistently high proinflationary vectors.
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- CBR more likely to hike +50bp over two successive +25bp steps as the hiking cycle approaches its end at +275bp
- CPI is forecast to rise to 6.7% in August and peak at 6.9% in September before falling to target (4%) in 2Q22 - necessitating one final front-loaded step to anchor declining, but still-elevated, inflation expectations lower
- Demand vectors driving economic performance above potential have receded from their June peak, providing space to slow the pace of hikes, but the CBR should continue to guide towards further hikes, should the need arise.
The CBR is broadly expected to raise its key rate by +50bps to a terminal rate of 7.00% this week, with expectations for a September peak in CPI at 6.9% fuelling the decision for a singular larger step over two successive +25bp hikes. This should mark the end of the hiking cycle at +275bp, with base effects expected to bring a moderation of price pressures towards the 4% target into 2Q22, providing space for the CBR to initiate an easing cycle.