Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- Governor Glapinski declared the end of the rate-hike cycle.
- Start of rate-cutting cycle this year seems to be a done deal.
- MPC will prefer to move in 25bp steps.
Full review document including a summary of sell-side views here:
MNI NBP Review - July 2023.pdf
NBP watchers had to wait until Governor Adam Glapinski’s press conference on Friday to hear the main news after the Monetary Policy Council’s meeting last week. Policymakers kept interest rates unchanged last week and introduced fairly insignificant adjustments to the statement, while the updated macroeconomic forecasts prepared by the staff also failed to impress. The Governor took the scene the day after the meeting concluded to officially declare that the tightening cycle is over and the next logical step will be to reduce interest rates. Reaffirming familiar conditions for rate cuts, Glapinski guided that the move may happen as soon as in September, while the NBP looks to deliver further cuts in measured 25bp increments.
Fig. 1: NBP CPI & GDP Fan Charts - July 2023 Projection
Source: NBP
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.