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Free AccessHousehold Survey Looks Very Healthy
The more you look at the U.S. November employment report, the stronger it appears - especially since the Fed takes heed of several Household Survey metrics which looked very healthy indeed:
- The employment-to-population ratio jumped a healthy 0.4pp to a pandemic era high 59.2%.
- Prime-age (25-54) year old participation is back to 81.8%, equalling summer levels which were pandemic era highs (and which may have declined due to Delta / care needs).
- A broad swathe of employment demographics the Fed has eyed has seen sharp improvement: Black/African-American unemployment rate down 1.2pp to 6.7% (pre pandemic was 6.0%) and less-than-high school diploma educated -1.7pp to 5.7% (back to pre-pandemic levels).
- The weakness within the establishment survey's payroll figure of +210k was surprisingly broad-based however. Every single main category saw a smaller job gain than in Oct rather than just being Delta-related, although that said it was most pronounced in "food services & drinking places" and "retail trade" where the latter actually saw a seasonally adjusted decline on the month.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.