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Consolidation Mode But Remains Bearish

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Fails To Hold Onto Thursday’s High

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The more you look at the U.S. November employment report, the stronger it appears - especially since the Fed takes heed of several Household Survey metrics which looked very healthy indeed:

  • The employment-to-population ratio jumped a healthy 0.4pp to a pandemic era high 59.2%.
  • Prime-age (25-54) year old participation is back to 81.8%, equalling summer levels which were pandemic era highs (and which may have declined due to Delta / care needs).
  • A broad swathe of employment demographics the Fed has eyed has seen sharp improvement: Black/African-American unemployment rate down 1.2pp to 6.7% (pre pandemic was 6.0%) and less-than-high school diploma educated -1.7pp to 5.7% (back to pre-pandemic levels).
  • The weakness within the establishment survey's payroll figure of +210k was surprisingly broad-based however. Every single main category saw a smaller job gain than in Oct rather than just being Delta-related, although that said it was most pronounced in "food services & drinking places" and "retail trade" where the latter actually saw a seasonally adjusted decline on the month.