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HSBC Forecasts Oil Market Deficit Above 1mbpd in Q2, Q3

OIL

HSBC forecasts an oil market deficit of above 1mbpd in the second and third quarter of this year, including the newly announced Russian output cuts and a partial unwinding of OPEC+ cuts starting from July, the bank said in a note.

  • OPEC+ is unlikely to add new volumes to the market unless the conditions warrant it and there is no risk of creating a supply surplus, the bank said.
  • The bank does not rule out an extension of Saudi Arabia’s cuts until year-end if prices or demand weaken and non-OPEC supply growth exceeds expectations.
  • Saudi Arabia is expected to bring back half of its 1mbpd cut, with production stabilising at 9.5mbd from end-2024.
  • OPEC+ spare capacity is forecast to peak at over 6mbd in June and stay above 5mbd in the medium term, well above historical levels.
  • The bank kept the Brent forecast unchanged at $82.5/bbl for 2024 and $76.5/bbl for 2025
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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