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HSBC: Look for a 9-0 vote to keep rates on hold in December

BOE
  • "December meeting could be another close call although we think the MPC will vote 9-0 to keep rates on hold, amid the Omicron uncertainty."
  • "For the sake of seven additional weeks – until the February meeting, which will also provide the MPC with an updated forecast – we suspect the MPC will prefer to wait. Indeed, the only two ‘cycle-starting’ rate decisions the MPC has made in the last twenty years that were not in Monetary Policy Report meetings were in response to the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 crisis."
  • "We are sticking with our forecast for a February lift-off for the BoE. Had it not been for the emergence of the Omicron variant and associated uncertainty, we might have been tempted to bring forward our forecast for the first hike from February to this 16 December meeting"
  • Not base case but "if the MPC does hike in December, is what next? Our forecast is for three rate rises in February 2022, August 2022 and then February 2023. But, if the first move comes in December, then August will seem quite distant for the follow-up. So we will be scouring the December minutes for any clues on the profile... the keener the MPC are on getting started with QT, the more likely a February follow-up"
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