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HSBC Revise Year-End EUR/HUF Forecast to 380 (Prior: 370)

HUF
  • HSBC continue to see EUR/HUF trending lower over the medium term. However, they recalibrate their forecasts as the monetary policy anchor is weaker and the political risk premium persists. They now see EUR/HUF falling to 380 by year-end vs 370 previously.
  • In HSBC’s view, what has changed in the recent months is the NBH’s sensitivity to FX. They say while HUF still matters for the central bank, the degree of sensitivity appears to have changed. The fact that the NBH has continued to cut by steps of 75-100bps since the start of year despite upside pressure on EUR/HUF is illustrative of a change, in HSBC’s view.
  • They believe that the central bank’s tolerance for a weaker HUF has increased, and its priorities have turned more in favour of addressing soft growth/inflation dynamics than defending the HUF. Such lower sensitivity to FX means that the HUF upside potential is likely to be smaller than what previously thought.
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