HUF: EUR/HUF Breaches Support as Forint Leads Regional Gains

The Hungarian forint is second to only the South African rand at the top of the EMEA pile, up around 0.3% against the euro at the start of the week. Local catalysts remain few and far between, with strong performance of the currency likely a function of the weaker greenback this morning. Today’s price action has resulted in another breach of support at the 50-day EMA for EURHUF, which intersects at 373.71.

• A clear break of the average is needed to bolster bearish momentum with losses for now considered corrective from a technical standpoint. That could signal scope for a sustained move lower towards 388.82, the Jul 22 low. For bulls, attention remains on a key resistance at 398.85, the Jun 14 high.
• Data-wise, unemployment rate figures for July provide the highlight of the week on Friday and is the only local release of note this week. Looking ahead, the NBH rate decision then takes focus on Aug 27, with early sell-side views looking for a ‘hold’ decision following the above-consensus inflation print in July.