HUF: EURHUF Below Initial Support Level as Local Markets Reopen

EURHUF is trading marginally lower at typing, with the Hungarian forint among the top performers in the EMEA space as local market participants return from a 2-day holiday. Domestic drivers remain scarce, but a consolidation of major equities close to recent highs is likely supporting the forint at the margins.

• Weakness in the Polish zloty following more-dovish comments by the NBP Chief yesterday and disappointing industrial production figures today has prompted a 0.3% move lower for PLNHUF, which is now through the 50-day EMA. A break of the Aug 12 low of 91.13 would interrupt the cycle of higher-highs and higher-lows.
• For EURHUF, the cross closed below support at the 50-day EMA yesterday, though a more sustained break of this average is needed to signal scope for extension lower towards 388.82, the Jul 22 low.
• Data-wise, unemployment rate figures for July provide the highlight of the week on Friday and is the only local release of note this week. The NBH meet next Tuesday (Aug 27) with early sell-side views looking for a ‘hold’ at 6.75%.