HUF: EURHUF Hovers Above 390 as Local Focus Shifts to Q2 GDP Data

EURHUF is trading marginally in the red at typing, with the cross therefore not far off Friday’s low near the 390 mark. Focus is on 388.82, the Jul 22 low, a clearance of which would highlight a resumption of the bear leg that started Jun 14 and potentially open 386.53, 76.4% of the May 28 - Jun 14 rally.

• A foreign policy speech from Prime Minister Orban over the weekend – in which he offered a vision of a new world order, with backing from China and Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House – has attracted criticism from Hungary’s allies and will add to the rift between Budapest and the EU. More on that here.
• Looking ahead, the preliminary reading of Q2 GDP data provides the highlight this week, with figures crossing tomorrow morning. Growth of +2.3% Y/Y is expected compared to +1.1% prior. Economy Minister Nagy said last week the figures probably won’t show an improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis as Hungary’s industry exports are holding back growth, however, the minister forecasts growth of 2-3% for 2024 overall. That is in-line with the NBH’s forecast.