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HUF: Forint Gains Moderately on Policy Statement, But NBH Offer Few Surprises

HUF
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsHungaryRegion

EURHUF had been declining ahead of the release of the August policy statement and press conference, though its losses were potentially exacerbated by the lack of dovish guidance in the former. The cross stands 0.2% lower at typing, with losses similar to that of EURPLN, though Monday’s lows still remain some way off.

  • Guidance from Virag, who has stated that the Council will consider a ‘small’ rate cut and a hold in October, is in-line with market expectations. Broadly, the central bank is seen cutting one more time this year, likely in December when an updated inflation forecast will be provided.
  • For EURHUF, familiar technical levels remain in play, with initial support at 394.04, the 50-day EMA. A clear break would set sights on key near-term support at 391.93, the Aug 21 low. On the upside, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 399.21, the Aug 5 high.
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EURHUF had been declining ahead of the release of the August policy statement and press conference, though its losses were potentially exacerbated by the lack of dovish guidance in the former. The cross stands 0.2% lower at typing, with losses similar to that of EURPLN, though Monday’s lows still remain some way off.

  • Guidance from Virag, who has stated that the Council will consider a ‘small’ rate cut and a hold in October, is in-line with market expectations. Broadly, the central bank is seen cutting one more time this year, likely in December when an updated inflation forecast will be provided.
  • For EURHUF, familiar technical levels remain in play, with initial support at 394.04, the 50-day EMA. A clear break would set sights on key near-term support at 391.93, the Aug 21 low. On the upside, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 399.21, the Aug 5 high.