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Huge week for UK data: Labour market, inflation to come

UK DATA
  • There is currently 65bp priced for next week's rescheduled MPC meeting, 186bp by year-end and 260bp priced by May 2023 (the current peak with Bank Rate over 4.25%).
  • Tomorrow will see the release of labour market data. The previous print saw stronger growth in employment and also higher wage growth than had been expected – a repeat would likely see markets lean further towards pricing in a 75bp hike for next week.
  • Wednesday will see inflation data for August which is expected at 10.1%Y/Y with two-way risks by consensus, while core CPI is expected to increase a tenth to 6.3%Y/Y but with downside risks. Note that for headline inflation we have not seen a downside surprise for almost a year - since the September 2021 print (released in October 2021). The September 2021 print also represents the last time we saw a down tick in inflation. A downside surprise would certainly help the narrative for the less hawkish members of the MPC, and potentially remove some of the impetus for a 75bp hike next week – but unless we saw a particularly large downside surprise would be unlikely to remove the prospects of a 75bp hike completely.
  • Thursday will see the release of the BOE/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey while Friday will see retail sales data for August. Sales are expected to moderate after being boosted in July by online discounting (i.e. likely a very successful Prime Day). The extent of the fall will be monitored in the light of continued decreasing consumer confidence data – although the energy support scheme may well see at least some bottoming out in consumer confidence prints.
  • We have already received monthly activity data for July (including GDP) this morning, which was marginally disappointing, with services and trade holding up but IP and construction weaker-than-expected.
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