Free Trial
OIL

Europe Oil Inventories Increased in October

OIL

Crude and Cracks Decline Before EIA Data

CORN TECHS

(Z2) Watching Key Support

STIR

SOFR Call Spd

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

Huge week for UK data: Labour market, inflation to come

UK DATA
  • There is currently 65bp priced for next week's rescheduled MPC meeting, 186bp by year-end and 260bp priced by May 2023 (the current peak with Bank Rate over 4.25%).
  • Tomorrow will see the release of labour market data. The previous print saw stronger growth in employment and also higher wage growth than had been expected – a repeat would likely see markets lean further towards pricing in a 75bp hike for next week.
  • Wednesday will see inflation data for August which is expected at 10.1%Y/Y with two-way risks by consensus, while core CPI is expected to increase a tenth to 6.3%Y/Y but with downside risks. Note that for headline inflation we have not seen a downside surprise for almost a year - since the September 2021 print (released in October 2021). The September 2021 print also represents the last time we saw a down tick in inflation. A downside surprise would certainly help the narrative for the less hawkish members of the MPC, and potentially remove some of the impetus for a 75bp hike next week – but unless we saw a particularly large downside surprise would be unlikely to remove the prospects of a 75bp hike completely.
  • Thursday will see the release of the BOE/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey while Friday will see retail sales data for August. Sales are expected to moderate after being boosted in July by online discounting (i.e. likely a very successful Prime Day). The extent of the fall will be monitored in the light of continued decreasing consumer confidence data – although the energy support scheme may well see at least some bottoming out in consumer confidence prints.
  • We have already received monthly activity data for July (including GDP) this morning, which was marginally disappointing, with services and trade holding up but IP and construction weaker-than-expected.
296 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.
  • There is currently 65bp priced for next week's rescheduled MPC meeting, 186bp by year-end and 260bp priced by May 2023 (the current peak with Bank Rate over 4.25%).
  • Tomorrow will see the release of labour market data. The previous print saw stronger growth in employment and also higher wage growth than had been expected – a repeat would likely see markets lean further towards pricing in a 75bp hike for next week.
  • Wednesday will see inflation data for August which is expected at 10.1%Y/Y with two-way risks by consensus, while core CPI is expected to increase a tenth to 6.3%Y/Y but with downside risks. Note that for headline inflation we have not seen a downside surprise for almost a year - since the September 2021 print (released in October 2021). The September 2021 print also represents the last time we saw a down tick in inflation. A downside surprise would certainly help the narrative for the less hawkish members of the MPC, and potentially remove some of the impetus for a 75bp hike next week – but unless we saw a particularly large downside surprise would be unlikely to remove the prospects of a 75bp hike completely.
  • Thursday will see the release of the BOE/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey while Friday will see retail sales data for August. Sales are expected to moderate after being boosted in July by online discounting (i.e. likely a very successful Prime Day). The extent of the fall will be monitored in the light of continued decreasing consumer confidence data – although the energy support scheme may well see at least some bottoming out in consumer confidence prints.
  • We have already received monthly activity data for July (including GDP) this morning, which was marginally disappointing, with services and trade holding up but IP and construction weaker-than-expected.