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HUNGARY: Goldman Sachs Expect Policy Rate to Decline More Than Currently Priced

HUNGARY
  • While the persistence of services inflation is noteworthy, especially as the NBH has emphasised in its communication the importance of the category to monetary policy prospects, Goldman Sachs expect it to decline over the coming months. 
  • In their view, Hungarian inflation (and CEE inflation more broadly) is largely driven by external factors and accelerating growth and a strong labour market are unlikely to have a sizeable impact on the CPI. 
  • Given their relatively dovish views on Hungarian (and broader CEE) inflation, Goldman Sachs continue to expect policy rates to decline by more than is priced by the market in H2, but acknowledge that external risks, in particular HUF volatility, continue to act as the ‘binding constraint’ on the pace of rate reduction.
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsHungaryRegion
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsHungaryRegion

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