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HUNGARY: ING Maintain 6.50% Year-End Policy Rate Forecast

HUNGARY
  • ING continue to believe in the need for a substantially positive real interest rate and, in contrast to the central bank's forecast, they continue to expect stronger monthly repricing over the remainder of the year, mainly on the back of pro-inflationary fiscal measures and stronger-than-expected wage growth.
  • Against this backdrop, ING maintain their call for a year-end policy rate of 6.50% with some downside risk mainly stemming from their non-consensus inflation outlook.
  • ING note that they have been bearish on the HUF for some time now mainly due to the significant move down in market rates in recent weeks. So, the NBH decision is just confirmation to the market that the earlier dovish move was correct.
  • They add that despite the fact that the front of the curve probably does not have much more room to price in more rate cuts now, the HUF will follow the previous rate differential tightening and weaken. ING see 394 as the next stop in the near term from current levels.
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsHungaryRegion
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsHungaryRegion

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