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HUNGARY: Rate Cuts Expected to Resume in Sept Following July Hold

HUNGARY
  • Local news flow is light today, with market focus on the implications of yesterday’s central bank rate decision. There, the NBH kept its base rate unchanged at 6.75%, a decision in-line with the consensus view among analysts (though a minority had flagged risk of another 25bp rate cut).
  • The policy statement acknowledged that rate cuts will be possible in the coming period, while the Deputy Governor was more specific, saying he still sees scope for 1 or 2 rate cuts before year-end. This is consistent with pre-decision speculation that the hold would be a pause, with easing likely to resume next month followed by one more rate cut, potentially in December, when updated inflation forecasts will be provided.
  • There are no data releases scheduled for today, with PPI figures for July crossing tomorrow morning. Our review for yesterday’s MPC meeting, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, will be released later today.

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