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IAG (IAGLN; Ba2 Pos. CW, BBB- S) {IAG LN Equity}

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
  • IAG headlines on dividend restart should not be a surprise - it was guiding to returning cash to equity holders when it reported FY23 results in late Feb. FY24 guidance then was for "generating significant positive FCF" - & that guidance was net of the €3.7b in capex its guiding to (up from €3.5b last year).
  • For reference it had €1.3b in FCF for FY23 - that helped leverage down to 1.7* (from 3.1*) - that's now below its target for 1.8* over the cycle.
  • Moody's placed it on review for upgrade in Mid-march - likely already saw dividend restart. Curve trades tight for ratings - crossover (& net higher rated) Wizz Air 26's and Air France 28's spread well wide to it.

Bloomberg headlines from unnamed sources

  • IAG TOLD INVESTORS PAYMENT COULD BE MADE BEFORE YEAR-END
  • BRITISH AIRWAYS OWNER IAG SAID TO CONSIDER DIVIDEND THIS YEAR
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