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IDS (NR/BBB Neg) UK government taking a look at Kretinsky-Russia links

TRANSPORTATION

Daniel's final offer seemed to be accommodative to the UK government re. conforming to Universal Service Obligations but apparently the new labour government is more focused on his links to stakes in Russia-Europe gas pipelines.

Equities are actually up another +1% today so they are not worried yet (or see current ~80%+ prob. priced as fair). Adding to that it's not the first time the national security and investment act was used to investigate his investments in Russian gas. A probe on the same grounds occurred in 2022 when Daniel was looking to increase his stake - it was eventually called off (allowing him to) with equities jumping +8% on it at the time.

We don't see outcome from above impacting our RV thoughts (bar the £30s) given 1) €28s trade wide even on Daniel loading debt on (long-time view now) 2) if deal fails it's a positive for ratings, unclear for longer term fundamentals though 3) €26s are a cheap hedge for HY ratings on par CoC kicking in.

Reported timeline for government to review the deal is 2-months - that should be ahead of 2H (ending Sept) results that generally come mid November. 28s have moved in 10bps over last fortnight, 26s coming out a tad but it also has on cash px.

Source piece here

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