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IEA Cuts Global Oil Demand Forecast For 2023 to 102.1mbpd

OIL

IEA has revised down its 2023 oil demand growth forecast by 220kbpd to 102.1mbpd, amid weaker manufacturing activity, while it revised up its global supply forecasts for 2023 and 2024 according to the IEA’s Monthly Oil Report.

  • Total global oil demand is forecast to reach 102.1mbpd, compared with a forecast of 102.3mbpd in IEA’s June report.
  • Global oil demand growth is projected at 2.2mbpd this year, down from 2.4mbpd in last month’s forecast. Chinese demand will account for 70% of global growth. Growth is expected to slow in 2024 to 1.1mbpd, revised up from 860kbpd.
  • IEA’s global oil-supply forecasts suggest an increase of 1.6mbpd to 101.5mbpd in 2023, revised up from previous estimates of 101.3mbpd. Global supply is forecast to reach 102.8mbppd in 2024, also revised up from last month’s forecast of 102.3mbpd, with non-OPEC accounting for all the increase.
  • World crude oil supply in June rose by 480kbpd to 101.8mbpd but is expected to fall sharply next month on additional output cuts from Saudi Arabia.
  • Russian oil exports fell further by 600kbpd in June to 7.3mbpd, the lowest level since March 2021.
  • Global refinery throughputs for 2023 have been raised by 130kbpd to 82.5mbpd. 2024 refinery throughput has also been hiked by 90kbpd to 83.5mbpd.

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