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IEA Raises Oil Demand Growth by 180kbpd to 1.2mbpd

OIL

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 has been revised higher by 180kbpd to 1.2mbpd to reach almost 103mbpd, according to the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report.

  • Slower oil demand growth this year is due to a completed post-Covid recovery, lower GDP growth in major economies, energy efficiency improvements and the electrification of the vehicle fleet.
  • China is expected to lead oil demand growth again in 2024 amid the expanding petrochemical sector.
  • Oil demand growth slowed in 4Q 2023 to 1.7mbpd, compared with 3.2mbpd during the second and third quarters of last year. Total oil demand growth stood at 2.3mbpd last year.
  • On the supply side, global oil supply is set to rise by 1.5mbpd to 103mbpd this year, driven by higher output from the US Brazil, Guyana and Canada. Non-OPEC+ production is expected to dominate growth this year with 1.5mbpd.
  • OPEC+ supply is expected to hold steady on last year, under the condition the latest voluntary cuts are phased out gradually in 2Q24.
  • Refinery crude throughputs are forecast to average 83.3mbpd in 2024, above the 2018 record of 82.5mbpd. The disparity between OECD and non-OECD runs will continue to widen, as new capacity starts in the Middle East, Africa, and China.
  • Russian oil exports rose by 500kbpd to 7.8mbpd in December, the highest level in nine months. Crude shipments accounted for 240kbpd of the increase, while oil products flows rose by 260kbpd month on month.
  • “The market looks reasonably well supplied in 2024, with higher-than-expected non-OPEC+ production increases set to outpace oil demand growth by a healthy margin”, the report said.
Energy BulletsCommodities
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