IEA Sees Global Oil Demand At Record of 102.2mbpd in 2023

IEA has revised up its global oil demand forecast for this year to 102.2mbpd, compared with 102.1mbpd in last month’s report boosted by strong summer air travel, increased oil use in power generation and surging Chinese petrochemical activity according to the IEA’s Monthly Oil Report.

• The global oil demand growth for this year has remained stable on the month at 2.2mbpd. China is expected to account for more than 70% of growth. Global oil demand growth is expected to slow in 2024 by 1mbpd.
• World oil demand hit a record of 103mbpd in June and August could see yet another peak.
• On the supply side, IEA’s global oil-supply forecast sees global oil output to rise by 1.5mbpd on the year to 101.5mbpd in 2023. Non-OPEC supply growth will be driven by the US.
• World crude supply in July declined by 910kbpd on the month to 100.9mbpd. OPEC+ output fell by 1.2mbpd – driven by Saudi cuts – to 50.7mbpd, while non-OPEC supply rose by 310kbpd to 50.2mbpd.
• Russian oil exports held steady on the month last month at 7.3mbpd. A 200kbpd decline in crude oil loadings was offset by higher product shipments.
• Global refinery throughputs are set to reach a summer peak of 83.9mbpd in August, up 2.4mbpd since May and 2.6mbpd higher than a year ago. The increase in refined product output has failed to ease product market tightness, pushing gasoline and middle distillate cracks to near record-highs. High sulphur fuel oil cracks provided further support to margins, which pushed above 2022 levels in July.