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Imports Surged In July, Exports Up As Well

JAPAN DATA

Japan July trade figures showed sequential improvement from a export and import growth standpoint. Exports rose 10.3% y/y, versus 5.4% in June (market forecasts were +11.5%, so we were just shy of that). Base effects helped with last July printing -0.3%y/y. Imports were stronger up 16.6%y/y (versus a 14.6% forecast and 3.2% prior). Base effects are helping but only marginally (July last year printed -14.1%y/y versus June -13.1%y/y).

  • The firmer import picture drove a wider than forecast trade deficit of -¥621.8bn, but the seasonally adjusted outcome of -¥755.2bn was close to expectations.
  • Exports to the US and China were firm in y/y terms, but fell to -5.3%y/y to the EU. In volume terms though exports were weak, off -5.2% y/y, with negative prints to all key regions.
  • Import volumes were strong up 4.4% y/y (from -8.9% in June). Imports from Asia and China (+13.6%y/y) drove the move. All else equal this signals a better domestic demand backdrop.
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Japan July trade figures showed sequential improvement from a export and import growth standpoint. Exports rose 10.3% y/y, versus 5.4% in June (market forecasts were +11.5%, so we were just shy of that). Base effects helped with last July printing -0.3%y/y. Imports were stronger up 16.6%y/y (versus a 14.6% forecast and 3.2% prior). Base effects are helping but only marginally (July last year printed -14.1%y/y versus June -13.1%y/y).

  • The firmer import picture drove a wider than forecast trade deficit of -¥621.8bn, but the seasonally adjusted outcome of -¥755.2bn was close to expectations.
  • Exports to the US and China were firm in y/y terms, but fell to -5.3%y/y to the EU. In volume terms though exports were weak, off -5.2% y/y, with negative prints to all key regions.
  • Import volumes were strong up 4.4% y/y (from -8.9% in June). Imports from Asia and China (+13.6%y/y) drove the move. All else equal this signals a better domestic demand backdrop.