In UK letter to EU for new NI/RoI protocol,......>

UK: In UK letter to EU for new NI/RoI protocol, fourth point states that "this

regulatory zone [all island goods trade] must depend on the consent of those

affected by it". 

- This in effect means the NI Assembly and Irish Dail will have to continue to

approve alignment at end of transition period and every 4 years thereafter. 

- Could eventually spur a regulatory wedge between UK and NI once transition

period ends. 

- Anti-Brexit parties in NI (republican Sinn Fein, nationalist SDLP,

cross-community Alliance), while unlikely to govern together in Stormont, could

put aside differences and support continued alignment with EU rules after end of

transition.

- For Sinn Fein, continues alignment increases prospects of NI union with RoI as

a division will have been made between NI and GB. For Alliance, continued

alignment keeps NI linked to EU, a key aim as a staunch pro-Remain party. 

- Little recent polling, but 2019 EP election gave SF, SDLP, Alliance greater

vote share than pro-Brexit DUP, TUV and UUP.