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Independence Day Keeps Lid on Volumes, General Activity

  • Sanguine Independence Day trade kept currency markets generally muted, with futures volumes indicating market activity running at about 50% of usual daily average.
  • Prices generally respected recent ranges, however EUR and USD underperformed most others in G10. Strength across oil and commodity markets helped boost the likes of AUD and CAD, which extended recent corrective recoveries.
  • The overarching trend outlook for AUDUSD remains bearish following recent weakness and the extension of the reversal that started Jun 16. The pair has traded below the 20- and 50-day EMAs, suggesting scope for a deeper retracement. A continuation lower would open 0.6562, 76.4% of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally, Initial firm resistance is at 0.6721, the Jun 27 high. The latest bounce is likely a correction.
  • Regional PMI data takes focus across Asia-Pacific hours, with Australia, Japan, China and India all seeing June PMI updates. European territories and US follow later in the day, alongside Eurozone PPI, the latest consumer sentiment survey from the ECB and May factory orders. ECB's Nagel, Visco, Villeroy and de Cos are set to speak ahead of the FOMC minutes.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |

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