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INDIA: USD/INR Hovers Close to Record Highs, RBI Minutes in Focus

INDIA

USD/INR continues to trade close to record highs, as the local currency struggles to benefit from the rally across Asia FX this month. Similarly, an extension of the bearish reversal in crude prices has not offered the rupee any relief, as Reuters continue to cite local importer demand for dollars as a source of weakness. Out of the major Asia currencies, only the rupee has recorded spot losses versus the dollar in August (see chart below).

  • Meanwhile, the needle was not shifted by Indian PMIs, which remained firmly in expansive territory in July, albeit with some signs of moderating in manufacturing. Services expanded to 60.4 in August versus 60.3 in July, while manufacturing moderated to 57.9 from 58.1. The latter is still in highly expansive territory and the moderating will therefore give little concern to the RBI at this stage.
  • The RBI will release the minutes of the Aug 8 rate-setting meeting at 12:30BST/17:00 local time. Rates were left unchanged at that meeting, with a shallow easing cycle broadly expected to begin towards the end of the year.

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