Indonesian Economy Returns To Growth

Spot USD/IDR has added 33 figs so far and last trades at IDR14,375, even as data released yesterday showed that Indonesian GDP grew for the first time since pandemic began. Bulls look for a rally above the 50-DMA at IDR14,401, towards the 100-DMA at IDR14,421. Conversely, a break under the 200-DMA/Aug 4 low at IDR14,307/14,305 would shift focus to Jun 11 low of IDR14,185.

• USD/IDR 1-month NDF last +28 figs at IDR14,422. Topside focus falls on Aug 2 high of IDR14,555, while the 200-DMA/Aug 4 low at IDR14,342/14,323 provide the initial downside target.
• Indonesian Q2 GDP data beat expectations, as the economy grew 7.07% Y/Y. GDP expanded for the first time since 1Q2020 and at the fastest pace since 2008.
• FinMin Indrawati said that economic expansion could hit the upper end of the government's +4.0%-5.7% Y/Y forecast range this quarter if the outbreak of coronavirus Delta variant is contained. Econ Min Hartarto noted that GDP growth could top +5.0% Y/Y in Q4.
• On the data front, focus turns to Indonesia's consumer confidence data. Danareksa Research's gauge is expected to hit the wires today, while Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia's index will be published on Monday.