EUROZONE DATA: Industrial Prod M/M Tracking Broadly in Line with Consensus

Eurozone October industrial production is due for release Friday, with our tracking estimate pointing to a reading between -0.1% and 0.0% M/M, broadly in line with the Bloomberg consensus for a flat M/M print. We also estimate an upward revision to the September reading from -2.0% to -1.5% M/M.

• Despite only a marginal fall on the pan-EZ number, IP fell in four of the seven largest Eurozone members in October. German IP fell 1.1% M/M (-2.4% prior) - the second consecutive monthly fall contributing around -0.4ppts to the Eurozone wide industrial production reading in October. Belgian IP saw a fall of 6.2% M/M contributing -0.2ppts to the Eurozone wide reading (the second time this year we have seen a fall of at least 6%). French IP declined 0.2% M/M (vs -0.7% prior) and the Netherlands recorded a decrease of 0.4% M/M (following -2.4% in September).
• The weakness in the EZ print was restricted by Ireland which recorded an increase in IP of 5.7% M/M (reversing most of September's fall of 5.5%). Spain also printed a gain of 1.0% M/M for the second successive month, repeating the highest sequential reading since February 2024.
• Italy recorded a flat sequential reading in October (vs a fall of 0.3% in September).
• Note, Eurostat uses industrial production numbers excluding construction, so the above country numbers may not reflect what was published as headline IP data from the national statistics agencies.
• The underlying member country weak performance and survey data such as PMIs point to a likelihood of a third successive quarterly drop in IP in Q4.