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Industrial Production Expected To Rise In June

SOUTH KOREA

Recently we noted the significant jump in semiconductor exports from South Korea. Year on year exports surged over 50%.

  • This is likely an inventory adjustment particularly by American importers concerned with the potential rise in protectionism should Donald Trump win in November.
  • Industrial Production in Korea is out Wednesday and consistent with this theme, it is likely to point to further expansion.
  • Despite the highlights from semiconductor demand, Industrial Production declined in May. Market consensus forecasts are for a rebound in Industrial Production for June (+0.8%m/m) following May’s surprise contraction (-1.2%m/m), driven by a significant decline in output from Autos.
  • The strength semiconductor exports are likely masking broader problems for the South Korean economy (recall the recent Q2 GDP contraction), as the regional expansion slows with China’s slowing economy, and concerns about protectionism rises.
  • Note that on Thursday full month trade for July prints, along with the July PMI. Friday delivers the July CPI outcome.
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