Industrial Production (Jun 2020) - Preview

EZ IP: +10.0% m/m, -11.6% y/y; Prev (May): 12.4% m/m, -20.9% y/y

• EZ IP is seen improving again in Jun with markets forecasting m/m output to rise 10%, while y/y production is expected to fall by 11.6%.
• Output rebounded sharply in May after plunging in both March and April due to the Covid-19 crisis.
• However, output is still well below Feb's pre-crisis level.
• State-level data is in line with market forecasts:
• German industrial production ticked up by almost 9%, while the French output rose 12.7%.
• Spanish production increased 14% in June, while the Italian industrial sector output grew by 8.2%.
• Survey data suggests further improvements in the coming months with the EZ mfg PMI rising above the 50-mark in July for the first time in 1.5 years.
• Meanwhile, the European Commission's ESI edged up to the highest level since March in July, however it remains well below pre-crisis readings.