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Inflation Data Eyed After Market Close

COLOMBIA
  • The statistics agency DANE will publish July inflation data, where analysts forecast that the annual reading will have slowed to 11.6% from 12.1% in the prior month. Shocks from global supply-chain disruptions continue to moderate and account for most of the decline. Falling domestic demand, accumulated peso appreciation and base effects are also contributing. Analysts note that increasing gasoline prices and strong indexation to prior inflation will limit the downside.
  • Markets will be focused on the core reading, looking for evidence of a U-turn from the 11.62% print in June, that will help bolster the potential future case for policy easing towards the final quarter of the year. Given Finance Minister Bonilla’s comments surrounding a rate cut in September and BanRep’s data dependent stance, the data will be eagerly awaited at 0000BST/1900ET:
    • July CPI M/m, est. 0.31%, prior 0.30%
    • July CPI Y/y, est. 11.60%, prior 12.13%
    • July CPI Core M/m, prior 0.50%
    • July CPI Core Y/y, prior 11.62%
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