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NEW ZEALAND: Inflation Expectations Well Anchored Around Band Mid-Point

NEW ZEALAND
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The RBNZ’s survey of inflation expectations for Q1 were fairly steady hovering just above the 2% mid-point of the target band. The 1-year measure picked up to 2.15% from 2.05%, while 2-years ahead moderated to 2.06% from 2.12%, just below Q4’s headline 2.2% rate but above core at 3.1%. The outcomes should reassure the MPC that inflation expectations remain well anchored and allow it to ease by 50bp again on February 19 given weak activity. The Q1 household survey measure of inflation expectations is released on February 18 and while it tends to run above the business measure, it also has moderated significantly.

NZ CPI vs inflation expectations y/y%

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The RBNZ’s survey of inflation expectations for Q1 were fairly steady hovering just above the 2% mid-point of the target band. The 1-year measure picked up to 2.15% from 2.05%, while 2-years ahead moderated to 2.06% from 2.12%, just below Q4’s headline 2.2% rate but above core at 3.1%. The outcomes should reassure the MPC that inflation expectations remain well anchored and allow it to ease by 50bp again on February 19 given weak activity. The Q1 household survey measure of inflation expectations is released on February 18 and while it tends to run above the business measure, it also has moderated significantly.

NZ CPI vs inflation expectations y/y%

Keep reading...Show less