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Inflation Expected to End Downtrend in July

TURKEY
Turkish CPI data is on the docket tomorrow morning (0800BST/1000 local time). The median of the Bloomberg survey sees inflation ending its recent downtrend and increasing to 46.8% y/y in July (Prior: 38.21%). As a reminder, the CBRT now projects inflation to end this year at 58%, up from the previous forecast of 22.3%.
  • Goldman Sachs expect headline to rise to 45.0% and core inflation to rise to 52.0%. They say the increase will be driven by the fading of favourable base effects as well as increased sequential inflation pressures.
  • ING expect annual inflation to end its downtrend in July and increase to 45.2%, with risks on the upside. Recent lira depreciation, large mid-year wage adjustments and revenue-raising measures to offset some of the fiscal pressures related to wage hikes and earthquake reconstruction will be inflationary in the period ahead, they say.
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